Trump’s 37% Approval Looks Like a Democratic Gift. The 2026 Race for Congress Says Otherwise

Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 37%, but a new Washington Post-Ipsos poll shows Democrats holding only a narrow advantage in the 2026 race for Congress. Voter enthusiasm, economic anxiety, and redistricting could decide control of the House and Senate.

President Donald Trump is deeply unpopular with much of the country. Americans remain worried about the economy, frustrated by prices, and increasingly critical of the war with Iran. Yet Republicans are still within striking distance of keeping control of Congress.

That is the striking contradiction inside a new Washington Post-Ipsos poll. Democrats lead Republicans by only three percentage points among registered voters, 48% to 45%, in the nationwide contest for Congress.

For Democrats, the poll contains both an opportunity and a warning. Their voters appear considerably more motivated than Republicans, but their overall advantage remains much smaller than the one they carried into the 2018 midterm elections.

In other words, Trump’s unpopularity has created an opening. It has not yet created a Democratic wave.

New 2026 Midterm Poll Shows a Narrow Democratic Lead

The Washington Post-Ipsos poll was conducted online from July 8 through July 13 among 2,648 adults, including 2,092 registered voters. The margin of error was plus or minus 1.9 percentage points for the full sample and 2.2 points for registered voters.

Among all registered voters, Democrats received 48% of the vote, while Republicans received 45%. Because the difference sits close to the survey’s margin of error, we should treat it as evidence of a competitive national environment rather than a guaranteed Democratic lead on Election Day.

The picture changes when we look at the people most determined to participate. Among voters who said they were “absolutely certain” to vote, Democrats led 53% to 45%. That eight-point advantage suggests turnout could become the party’s most valuable weapon.

The difference between a three-point race and an eight-point race is enormous. The first could leave Republicans in control of the House. The second could give Democrats enough momentum to capture a meaningful number of competitive districts.

But voter intention is not the same as a counted ballot. Campaign organization, candidate strength, early voting, local controversies, and late economic developments can still change who participates.

Trump’s 37% Approval Rating Is a Serious Republican Warning.

Trump’s overall approval rating stood at 37% among American adults in the Post-Ipsos poll. His approval rating was slightly higher among registered voters, at 40%.

A separate Economist/YouGov poll conducted July 10 through July 13 produced nearly identical results. It found that 37% of Americans approved of Trump’s job performance while 59% disapproved.

Normally, numbers this weak would create severe problems for the president’s party in a midterm election. The party controlling the White House has lost House seats in 20 of the 22 midterm elections held since 1938, according to a Brookings Institution review of midterm history.

Trump’s low rating therefore matters. Republican congressional candidates will spend the campaign answering questions about an administration many voters dislike, even when those candidates would rather focus on local concerns.

But presidential approval and congressional voting intention are not identical. Some voters who disapprove of Trump may still trust Republicans more on taxes, immigration, or the economy. Others may dislike both parties, support an individual Republican candidate, or simply decide not to vote.

That helps explain why Trump can sit at 37% approval while Republicans still receive 45% support in the congressional ballot.

The Economy Is Hurting Trump, but Republicans Retain an Advantage

The economy remains the dominant issue in the 2026 midterm elections. Fifty-four percent of registered voters identified it as one of the most important factors in their vote. Nearly one in five specifically mentioned prices or affordability.

Financial pessimism has also increased dramatically since Trump’s first term. Forty percent of registered voters said they were not as well off as they had been when Trump returned to office. In November 2018, only 13% said they were worse off than when his first presidency began.

Voters gave Trump negative marks on the issues they considered most important. More than six in 10 disapproved of his handling of the economy and Iran, while 56% disapproved of his handling of immigration.

Those numbers should benefit Democrats. However, Republicans still held a four-point advantage when voters were asked which party they trusted more to manage the economy.

That finding reveals the Democrats’ central problem. Many Americans blame Trump for economic conditions without automatically trusting Democrats to provide a better answer.

About one in five voters said they trusted neither party to handle the economy. That included 20% of voters who ranked economic concerns as a top priority. These politically dissatisfied Americans could become one of the election’s most important groups.

Democrats will need to do more than describe public frustration. They will need to convince voters that they have a practical plan for wages, housing, food costs, health care, and household bills. Republicans, meanwhile, will try to separate economic confidence in their party from dissatisfaction with Trump’s performance.

Democratic Enthusiasm Could Become the Deciding Force

The strongest Democratic number in the poll was not the party’s three-point lead. It was the intensity of its supporters.

Democrats were 10 percentage points more likely than Republicans to say they were certain to vote. More than seven in 10 Democrats also said voting in 2026 was more important than voting in previous midterm elections. Just over half of Republicans said the same.

The emotional divide surrounding Trump appears to drive much of that energy.

Among Republican voters, 45% strongly approved of Trump. Among Democratic voters, 83% strongly disapproved of him. More than eight in 10 people in both groups said they were certain to vote, but the strongly anti-Trump Democratic group was considerably larger.

This creates an enthusiasm imbalance. Republicans who strongly support Trump remain engaged, but people who only somewhat approve of him appear less likely to participate. Republicans who disapprove of his performance are even less likely to say they will vote.

Democrats therefore do not need every voter who dislikes Trump to become a committed supporter. They need enough of those voters to show up in competitive districts where a few thousand ballots can decide the result.

A second national poll offers another encouraging sign for Democrats. The Economist/YouGov survey found that 36% of independents preferred Democratic control of the House, compared with 20% who preferred Republican control. However, the remaining independents selected another response or expressed no preference, leaving both parties with considerable room to gain or lose support.

Why the 2018 Democratic Wave Is an Imperfect Comparison

The 2018 midterm election offers Democrats a tempting model. During Trump’s first presidency, the party gained 40 House seats and took control of the chamber.

The current political environment shares some features with that election. Trump is unpopular, Democratic voters are highly motivated, and the president’s party must defend a narrow House majority.

The differences are just as important.

Ahead of the 2018 election, Democrats held a 10-point advantage on the congressional ballot in Washington Post-ABC polling. Their present lead is only three points. That means Democratic support is running seven points behind its 2018 level in this particular comparison.

At the same time, the enthusiasm gap appears larger now. Democrats are 10 points more likely than Republicans to say they are certain to vote, compared with a two-point advantage in 2018.

We are therefore looking at two competing forces. Democrats have a smaller pool of overall support, but a more motivated pool of likely voters.

Which force wins will depend on turnout. A broad but passive coalition can lose to a smaller coalition that votes reliably. However, enthusiasm cannot fully compensate for weak support in districts whose boundaries favor the opposing party.

Redistricting Has Raised the Price of Winning the House

The national congressional ballot does not translate directly into House seats. Americans elect representatives in 435 separate districts, not through one nationwide vote.

Analysts cited by The Washington Post estimate that Democrats may need to win the national House vote by roughly three to four percentage points to secure a majority. Their three-point polling advantage sits near the lower end of that range.

Recent redistricting has made the challenge more complicated. An analysis from the University of Virginia’s Sabato’s Crystal Ball examined map changes favoring Democrats in two states and Republicans in eight. Based on its district ratings, the publication estimated that redistricting could yield a net Republican gain of approximately 6 seats, although several redesigned districts remain competitive.

As of July 1, the official House membership list showed 218 Republicans, 212 Democrats, one independent, and four vacancies. That razor-thin balance means a relatively small number of election results could determine who becomes speaker and which party controls committees, investigations, and legislation.

Democrats could win more votes across the country and still fall short if those votes accumulate in heavily Democratic districts. Republicans could lose suburban support but survive by performing strongly in newly drawn or more favorable seats.

This is why a three-point Democratic lead should not be mistaken for control of the House. It puts the party in contention but leaves little room for error.

The Senate Remains a Steeper Challenge for Democrats

The battles in the House and Senate require different political strategies. Every House seat will be decided in November, allowing a national swing to reshape the chamber quickly. Only about one-third of Senate seats face voters in a normal election cycle, meaning the outcome depends heavily on which states are voting.

The Senate’s official party breakdown lists 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents. The independents generally align with Democrats for organizational purposes, leaving the Democratic side needing a net gain of four seats to take control.

Republicans are defending more Senate seats in 2026, but many are in states that already lean toward the GOP. Democrats must defend their own competitive territory while attempting to win several difficult Republican-held seats.

A national Democratic advantage could help, especially if Trump’s approval remains in the 30s. Still, Senate races are unusually sensitive to individual candidates, fundraising, state politics, and local issues. A Democratic House victory would not automatically produce a Democratic Senate.

What Could Move the Race Before November

The poll gives us a snapshot of public opinion in mid-July, not a final result. Several developments could reshape the contest before Election Day.

The economy will remain central. A noticeable decline in gasoline, food, or housing costs could help Republicans argue that conditions are improving. New price increases or weaker employment numbers could push undecided voters toward Democrats.

The course of the Iran conflict also matters. More than six in 10 registered voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of Iran in the Post-Ipsos poll. A resolution could reduce pressure on Republican candidates, while continued fighting, rising costs, or further instability could deepen voter dissatisfaction.

Candidate quality will matter as well. Strong candidates can outperform their party’s national numbers, particularly in suburban and rural swing districts. Poorly vetted nominees can turn winnable races into expensive defeats.

Finally, both parties must convert emotion into participation. Democrats currently possess the stronger enthusiasm advantage. Republicans still hold enough underlying support to remain competitive.

The 2026 Race for Congress Is Close, Volatile and Far From Settled

Trump’s 37% approval rating gives Democrats a powerful argument, but it does not hand them Congress.

The Democratic lead among registered voters is narrow. Their advantage among highly motivated voters is much stronger. Republicans retain an edge on economic trust, while Democrats benefit from public concern about affordability, Iran, and the president’s overall performance.

The election may ultimately come down to a simple question: Will Americans who disapprove of Trump vote for Democratic congressional candidates, or will many of them stay home, split their tickets, or choose Republicans despite their concerns?

Right now, the answer remains uncertain. Democrats have the energy required to threaten the Republican majority. Republicans have the structural advantages and sufficient voter support to survive.

That is not the shape of an inevitable wave. It is the shape of a national fight that could be decided district by district, ballot by ballot, and turnout operation by turnout operation.