Trump’s Approval Rating Hits New Low Among Noncollege Voters as Support Weakens

For years, Donald Trump’s political coalition has rested on a powerful foundation: voters without college degrees who viewed him as a political outsider willing to challenge Washington, universities, corporations and the traditional political establishment. That base now appears to be showing signs of strain.

That foundation now appears to be showing signs of strain. A new Echelon Insights survey shows Trump’s approval among voters with a high school education or less has fallen sharply. According to the poll, 41 percent of these voters approve of his performance, while 57 percent disapprove. At the beginning of Trump’s second term in January 2025, this same group gave him a 56 percent approval rating and a 38 percent disapproval rating.

The shift marks a major change for one of the groups that helped define Trump’s political success. These voters have long been central to his Republican coalition, especially in presidential elections. Now, as the 2026 midterm elections approach, some appear frustrated with the direction of the country and the results they are seeing in their daily lives.

Trump’s Polling Problem Goes Beyond One Group

The Echelon Insights poll surveyed likely voters in July 2026 and found broader challenges for the president. Across the electorate, Trump’s approval rating was 38 percent, while 61 percent disapproved. The numbers reflect widespread dissatisfaction. More than six in ten respondents said the country was moving in the wrong direction, while fewer than one-third believed it was headed the right way.

The survey also showed Democrats holding an advantage on the generic congressional ballot, with more voters saying they would support a Democratic candidate for Congress than a Republican candidate. That does not guarantee a Democratic victory in the midterms. Congressional races are shaped by individual candidates, local issues, turnout, and the political environment in each district. A national poll can reveal voter sentiment, but it cannot predict every race. Still, presidential approval ratings often influence how voters view the party in power. A struggling approval number can create challenges for candidates who must defend the administration while also trying to focus on local concerns.

The decline among noncollege voters is especially significant because Trump’s rise was built around strong support from working-class Americans. Many of these voters were drawn to his promises of economic change, tougher immigration policies, and a direct challenge to the political system. But political loyalty is not unlimited. Even strong supporters can become frustrated when they believe their economic situation is not improving.

The Economy Remains the Biggest Pressure Point

The biggest issue driving voter frustration appears to be the cost of living. According to the survey, inflation and everyday expenses remain among the top concerns for Americans. Many voters are judging the economy through personal experiences rather than government statistics: grocery prices, housing costs, insurance bills, and household expenses.

Trump’s economic approval numbers have weakened as voters continue to express concerns about affordability. While supporters point to job growth, business confidence and policy changes as signs of progress, many Americans remain focused on whether their own financial situation feels better. That disconnect can be politically damaging. A strong stock market or positive economic reports may not change the minds of voters who are struggling to pay monthly bills. For many households, economic success is measured by what they can afford at the end of the month.

The administration has defended its economic record, arguing that Trump has delivered major achievements and worked to improve conditions for American families. Supporters point to jobs, trade, energy, and deregulation as evidence of progress. However, the latest polling suggests those arguments have not fully convinced many voters.

Economic concerns are also affecting other parts of Trump’s agenda. Issues that have traditionally been strengths for him, including immigration and foreign policy, are receiving lower approval ratings than earlier in his political career. That does not mean voters have abandoned every Trump policy. Many Republican voters remain strongly supportive of his leadership style and priorities. But the data suggests economic frustration is becoming harder for the administration to overcome.

A Warning Sign, Not an Election Result

While the polling numbers are notable, they should not be treated as a final prediction of what will happen at the ballot box. Polls measure public opinion at a specific moment. Voters can change their views, campaigns can reshape political debates, and unexpected events can alter the election environment.

There are also important differences between educational groups and political behavior. Having a high school education rather than a college degree does not indicate a person’s intelligence, awareness, or political knowledge. It is simply a demographic category used by researchers to study voting patterns.

Subgroup polling should also be viewed with caution because smaller groups yield wider margins of uncertainty. However, the overall movement among noncollege voters remains politically important. Even a small decline among this group could create problems because these voters have played such a major role in Trump’s victories.

The central question is whether dissatisfaction will translate into action. Some unhappy Trump voters may decide to stay home. Others may continue supporting Republican candidates while expressing frustration with the president. Some may return to stronger support if economic conditions improve or if another issue becomes more important.

The outcome will depend on how voters feel when they cast their ballots. For now, the message from the polls is clear: Trump’s strongest supporters are not guaranteed to stay. The same voters who helped build his political movement are also capable of demanding results. Trump’s connection with working-class America has been one of the defining forces of modern politics. But maintaining that connection may depend less on past loyalty and more on whether voters believe their everyday lives are improving.