Nearly 18% of SNAP Recipients Could Lose Food Benefits Under New USDA Proposal

For millions of American families, grocery shopping already feels like a weekly math test. A carton of eggs, a gallon of milk, a few vegetables, and something for dinner can quickly turn into a bill that stretches the household budget.

Now, a new proposal from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) could make that balancing act even harder.

According to the agency’s own analysis, 17.6% of SNAP participants could lose their food benefits if the proposed changes take effect. That represents approximately 6.3 million people in 3.2 million households.

The proposal, published on November 10, 2026, would change how certain households qualify for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, better known as SNAP or food stamps.

But there is an important distinction: these cuts have not happened. The rule is still a proposal, and the USDA’s estimates describe what could happen once it is fully implemented.

What Exactly Is the USDA Proposing?

The proposed rule targets a policy called broad-based categorical eligibility, or BBCE.

That sounds complicated, but the idea is fairly straightforward.

Under current rules, many states use BBCE to help households qualify for SNAP through certain benefits or services connected to Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF).

This flexibility allows states to use higher income limits or remove certain asset restrictions.

For example, a working family might earn slightly more than the regular federal SNAP income limit but still qualify because its state uses a higher threshold.

The USDA wants to narrow that flexibility.

Under the proposal, certain TANF-related benefits and services would no longer automatically help households qualify for SNAP. Families losing that eligibility pathway would have to meet regular federal income and resource requirements unless another qualifying pathway applied.

The change would not automatically remove everyone receiving TANF-related assistance from SNAP.

What Does Losing SNAP Mean for Grocery Budgets?

For households that rely on SNAP, those monthly benefits help put everyday essentials on the table.

We’re talking about bread for sandwiches, milk for breakfast, vegetables for dinner, and ingredients that can stretch across several meals.

According to USDA figures for fiscal year 2025, the average monthly SNAP benefit was approximately $189 per person and $353 per household.

Those are averages, not the specific amounts families would lose under the proposal.

Still, they help explain why losing grocery assistance could be a serious financial challenge.

A household that loses SNAP would need to find another way to pay for groceries, whether through wages, savings, family support, or community food assistance.

And when grocery money comes out of an already tight budget, there may be less available for rent, transportation, childcare, and other necessities.

The USDA’s estimate is not a prediction that everyone’s SNAP payment will shrink by 18%. Instead, it projects that nearly 18% of participants would become ineligible altogether.

That’s a very different outcome.

Working Families Could Feel the Pinch

One of the biggest concerns surrounding the proposal is its potential impact on people who work but still struggle to cover basic expenses.

A family might earn enough to exceed the regular SNAP income limit while spending a large portion of its paycheck on rent, childcare, transportation, and utilities.

Under existing BBCE policies, some of these families can still qualify for grocery assistance.

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) estimated that approximately 3.5 million people in working families benefited from higher BBCE income limits in fiscal year 2023.

Those households received about $150 in SNAP benefits each month, on average.

That may not cover an entire grocery bill, but it can certainly help fill a shopping cart.

The organization warned on November 10 that the proposed changes could create situations where families lose assistance after receiving a relatively small increase in earnings.

School Lunches Could Be Affected, Too

The possible consequences don’t stop at the grocery store.

According to USDA projections, approximately 1.78 million children could lose automatic eligibility for free school meals because of the proposed SNAP changes.

That doesn’t mean all those children would suddenly have to pay full price for lunch.

The agency estimates that about 97% would remain eligible for free or reduced-price meals based on their household income.

However, some families might need to complete additional paperwork to maintain those benefits.

The USDA also estimates that approximately 42,000 children could lose Summer EBT benefits beginning in summer 2029.

For parents managing grocery budgets during school breaks, changes to summer food assistance could present another challenge.

Why Does the USDA Want These Changes?

The USDA argues that the proposal would make SNAP eligibility more consistent across states and direct assistance toward households that meet federal financial requirements.

Currently, states have considerable flexibility.

Some allow households to qualify with gross incomes reaching 200% of the federal poverty guidelines, while others use lower limits.

Asset rules also vary.

According to the USDA, 41 states using BBCE had no resource limit as of December 2025.

The department argues that tightening categorical eligibility would prevent households exceeding regular federal limits from receiving benefits through certain assistance pathways.

It also projects approximately $44.6 billion in reduced federal SNAP benefit spending between fiscal years 2027 and 2031.

Critics, including CBPP and the Food Research & Action Center, argue that stricter rules could hurt working families, older adults, and people with disabilities who face substantial living expenses.

There’s also an administrative cost.

USDA estimates states would spend approximately $928.5 million more on administration over the five-year period, partly because of additional financial checks and verification.

Could Food Banks See More Families Asking for Help?

Food banks may also feel the effects if millions of households lose grocery assistance.

A family that previously used SNAP to cover part of its monthly food bill might increasingly turn to community pantries and charitable food programs.

Kate Molbert, chief operating officer of the Great Plains Food Bank, told Valley News Live on November 11 that the proposal could increase demand for food assistance.

That remains a forecast, not an observed impact of the rule.

There is currently no verified national estimate showing exactly how much additional demand food banks would face.

What Should SNAP Households Do Now?

For anyone receiving SNAP, the most important thing to understand is that the proposed rule has not taken effect.

No one needs to assume their benefits have been canceled because of this announcement.

Households can continue following existing program requirements, reporting necessary changes, and responding to official notices from their state SNAP agencies.

It’s also worth keeping financial documents organized, particularly records involving income and savings, since those could become more important if the proposal is finalized.

The public comment period runs through December 10, 2026, giving interested individuals and organizations an opportunity to respond before the USDA decides its next steps.

For now, the grocery assistance millions of Americans depend on remains governed by existing eligibility rules. But with 6.3 million people potentially affected, the outcome of this proposal could have a significant impact on household food budgets across the country.