AOC Edges Buttigieg in Early 2028 New Hampshire Democratic Poll 

The 2028 Democratic presidential contest has no official field yet, but New Hampshire voters are already setting the early lineup. 

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York leads former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg by one percentage point in a new poll. A wide gap follows, with several of the Democratic Party’s most recognizable names behind them. 

The poll offers an intriguing early snapshot, but its narrow scope and margin of error mean the top two potential candidates are effectively tied. 

AOC and Buttigieg Pull Away From the Field 

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center found Ocasio-Cortez at 22% among likely voters in the state’s hypothetical 2028 Democratic presidential primary. Buttigieg followed at 21%. 

Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly placed third with 9%, while California Gov. Gavin Newsom received 8%. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders stood at 6%, and former Vice President Kamala Harris received 5%. 

No other potential candidate reached 3%. Twelve percent of respondents remained undecided, while another 17% selected someone outside the six leading names, according to the complete poll results. 

The survey included 648 likely Democratic primary voters and was conducted online from July 15 through July 20. Its margin of sampling error for that group was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. A total of 1,458 New Hampshire residents participated in the wider survey, according to the published methodology summary. 

That detail matters. A one-point difference is much smaller than the margin of error, so the poll does not establish Ocasio-Cortez as the clear leader. The more defensible conclusion is that she and Buttigieg occupy the same top tier, while every other potential candidate tested trails in single digits. 

Still, the movement since February is notable. Ocasio-Cortez gained seven percentage points, rising from 15% to 22%. Newsom moved in the opposite direction, falling from 15% to 8%. Harris dropped from 10% to 5%, as the comparison with previous polls shows. 

The pollsters also identified two distinctly different coalitions forming at the top. 

“Nearly half of socialists and one-third of progressives support Ocasio-Cortez, while pluralities of liberals and moderates support Buttigieg,” UNH Survey Center Director Andrew Smith said. 

Respondents backing Ocasio-Cortez most often pointed to her policies and ideology. Buttigieg’s supporters were more likely to mention his competence and qualifications, according to CBS News Boston’s coverage. 

The poll’s closest contest is therefore also a contrast in political appeal: a nationally prominent progressive lawmaker against a former mayor, presidential candidate and Cabinet secretary whose support stretches across several ideological groups. 

The Potential Contenders Leave the Door Open 

None of the people tested in this hypothetical poll has officially secured the Democratic nomination, and the survey should not be mistaken for a list of declared candidates. 

Ocasio-Cortez has avoided committing herself to a presidential campaign or another possible route to higher office. When Democratic strategist David Axelrod questioned her about her ambitions at a May political forum, she rejected the idea that her goal was simply a new title. 

“My ambition is to change the country,” Ocasio-Cortez said. She added that she wanted to make decisions by asking, “How are we going to change the country?” 

Her remarks, reported by The Guardian, did not confirm a campaign. They also did not close the door on a presidential run. 

Buttigieg has gone further. Speaking on “The Diary of a CEO” podcast, he was asked which way he was leaning about another presidential run. 

“I think I’m more inclined than not,” Buttigieg replied, before adding, “But there’s so much we don’t know.” 

He said the decision would involve his family and whether he believed he could offer something distinctive to the country. The full exchange appears in the published interview transcript, while People’s report provides additional context. 

Buttigieg previously sought the Democratic nomination in 2020 and finished second in that year’s New Hampshire primary. 

Sanders has offered the clearest answer among the six names near the top. Asked in June whether he might run again, the two-time presidential candidate responded, “I suspect that’s not going to happen.” 

He then supplied his own punchline: “I know I look like I’m 30. I am not.” The exchange can be viewed through C-SPAN’s official recording. 

Harris and Newsom have also faced persistent questions about 2028, but neither has formally entered the race. 

Harris has said, “I am not done,” while arguing that early polling has never determined whether she seeks public office. 

“If I listened to polls, I would have not run for my first office, or my second office, and I certainly wouldn’t be sitting here,” Harris said. Her comments were documented in a CalMatters discussion of the potential Democratic field. 

Newsom has similarly avoided making a definitive announcement. Asked about the possibility of eventually competing against Harris, he told CNN, “You can only control what you can control,” according to the Los Angeles Times. 

The UNH poll report did not include direct reactions from Ocasio-Cortez, Buttigieg, Kelly, Newsom, Sanders or Harris to its findings. 

Why This Poll Matters and Why It Cannot Predict 2028 

New Hampshire has an unusually large voice in presidential politics because of its long history of holding an early primary. That position has made the state an important testing ground for candidate appeal, campaign organization and political momentum. 

However, one state is not the country. 

New Hampshire’s Democratic primary electorate has its own political character, and the party’s final 2028 nominating calendar will help determine the state’s influence. The Democratic National Committee moved South Carolina ahead of New Hampshire during the 2024 cycle, disrupting a tradition that had given the Granite State the first Democratic primary for generations. 

The poll also arrives roughly two years before voters begin making binding choices. Several politicians included in early surveys may decline to run, while candidates receiving little attention now could enter later and reshape the contest. 

Early polling can measure familiarity, enthusiasm and current perceptions. It cannot account for future debates, endorsements, fundraising, campaign mistakes or major national events. 

What this survey shows is a New Hampshire Democratic electorate that is not automatically rallying behind the party’s previous national nominees or its most frequently discussed governors. 

Ocasio-Cortez and Buttigieg together captured 43% of the vote. Kelly, Newsom, Sanders and Harris combined received 28%.